Carbon Guide
March 2025
JUNE 2026
Welcome to the June edition of the Anthesis Carbon Guide. This month focuses on the rise of compliance-driven carbon markets.
The voluntary carbon market continues to evolve at pace – and alongside it, we are seeing a marked shift in how organisations are approaching climate action. Demand for high-integrity carbon solutions is growing, and the line between voluntary ambition and compliance obligation is becoming increasingly blurred.
This month also marks a significant moment for corporate climate strategy, with the Science Based Targets initiative publishing Version 2.0 of its Corporate Net-Zero Standard. This long-awaited update raises the bar for how companies set and deliver science-based targets, and we will be sharing our full analysis and guidance in our upcoming webinar.
As a trusted partner across the global carbon market, Anthesis develops, owns and supports a diverse portfolio of projects worldwide – helping organisations navigate complexity and turn climate commitments into measurable, credible impact.
This month, we turn our attention to the rise of compliance-driven carbon markets, and explore how regulatory frameworks are reshaping the broader landscape – creating both challenge and opportunity for forward-thinking businesses.
In the News: Key Recent Developments
UN Approves Key Methodological Tool for Cookstove Projects under Article 6.4
The Article 6.4 Supervisory Body has approved a new methodological tool covering the calculation of the Fraction of Non-Renewable Biomass (fNRB), a critical parameter for clean cookstove carbon projects.
European Commission Explores Role of Carbon Removals and International Credits
The European Commission is continuing discussions on how carbon removals and international credits could contribute towards achieving the EU’s 2040 climate targets, including the potential role of Carbon Dioxide Removals (CDRs) under the Carbon Removal and Carbon Farming Regulation (CRCF).
ICVCM Expands Integrity Framework Approvals
The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) has issued several new approvals under its Core Carbon Principles (CCPs), including conditional approval for selected Verra methodologies, approval of Isometric’s mangrove restoration protocol, and programme-level approval for the Global Carbon Council (GCC).
Isometric Applies for CRCF Approval
Carbon removal standard Isometric has applied to become an approved certification scheme under the EU’s Carbon Removal and Carbon Farming Regulation (CRCF), supporting the future certification of removals including biochar, BECCS, and direct air capture.
THE RISE OF COMPLIANCE CARBON MARKETS
Compliance carbon markets are becoming an increasingly important driver of how carbon markets develop globally.
According to the World Bank’s State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, direct carbon pricing mechanisms – including emissions trading systems (ETSs) and carbon taxes – now cover approximately 29% of global greenhouse gas emissions through 87 implemented policies worldwide. At the same time, carbon credits are becoming increasingly integrated into these systems, with many ETSs and carbon tax schemes already permitting companies to use carbon credits to meet part of their compliance obligations.
Governments around the world continue to expand carbon pricing mechanisms. The EU ETS remains the largest and most mature compliance market and is expanding into new sectors, whilst countries such as China, India, Japan, Vietnam, Brazil, and Türkiye are developing or expanding national carbon pricing systems. In parallel, carbon tax schemes in countries including Singapore, South Africa, Colombia, and Mexico increasingly allow the use of carbon credits as a compliance tool.
A further important development is the growth of CORSIA, the international aviation carbon market established by ICAO. As CORSIA moves towards its mandatory phase from 2027 onwards, airlines are expected to become a significant source of demand for high-integrity carbon credits. This is already reflected in the premium observed for CORSIA-eligible credits compared with many standard voluntary credits.
Alongside these developments, Article 6 of the Paris Agreement is establishing the framework for international carbon market cooperation. Article 6.2 enables countries to transfer emissions reductions between one another through bilateral agreements, whilst Article 6.4 establishes a UN-supervised carbon crediting mechanism. Together, these mechanisms are expected to strengthen transparency, integrity, and international trade in carbon credits, whilst creating stronger links between voluntary and compliance markets.
Importantly, the rise of compliance markets does not diminish the importance of voluntary carbon markets. On the contrary, voluntary markets continue to finance climate action, support innovation, and develop many of the projects and methodologies upon which compliance systems increasingly rely.
CARBON MARKET IMPLICATIONS
“Compliance and voluntary carbon markets are converging, and the direction of travel is clear – towards higher integrity, stronger governance, and greater regulatory oversight. For buyers and project developers alike, understanding where the market is heading is essential. Those who engage proactively with these changes, rather than react to them, will be the ones who unlock the greatest value.”
The growth of compliance carbon markets, Article 6, and CORSIA is expected to make carbon markets more interconnected, regulated, and integrity-driven.
As carbon credits become increasingly integrated into compliance frameworks, demand is likely to shift towards credits that meet stronger quality, transparency, and authorisation requirements. Credits associated with corresponding adjustments, host country authorisation, or compliance eligibility may increasingly command a premium over standard voluntary credits.
For buyers, this means that navigating the carbon market is becoming more complex. Factors such as project quality, jurisdiction, authorisation status, and future compliance eligibility are becoming increasingly important when building carbon credit portfolios. Understanding the distinctions between voluntary credits, Article 6-authorised credits, and compliance-eligible credits will be essential as the market continues to evolve.
For project developers, this creates new opportunities to access higher-value markets, whilst requiring closer engagement with host governments and evolving regulatory frameworks.
Whilst voluntary carbon markets will remain essential in mobilising climate finance and supporting climate action where compliance systems do not yet exist, the distinction between voluntary and compliance markets is likely to become less pronounced over time as both move towards higher integrity and stronger governance.
Carbon Price Ranges
| Carbon Pricing System | Carbon Credits Allowed? | Indicative Price (USD/tCO₂e) |
| EU ETS | No (currently) | 75–85 |
| UK ETS | No | 45–60 |
| California Cap-and-Invest | Yes (limited use) | 35–45 |
| RGGI | No | ~25 |
| New Zealand ETS | Limited | 30–35 |
| China National ETS | No | 11–13 |
| Korea ETS | Yes | 6–9 |
| Singapore Carbon Tax | Yes | ~18 |
| South Africa Carbon Tax | Yes | ~17 |
| CORSIA – Eligible Credits | Yes (CORSIA eligible carbon credits allowed) | 15-22 |
Prices are indicative and reflect recent market levels during 2025–2026. ETS prices represent allowance prices, carbon taxes represent government-set tax rates, and CORSIA values refer to eligible carbon credit prices. Carbon market prices are subject to fluctuation over time due to changes in regulation, supply and demand dynamics, and market expectations.
Portfolio
Explore our projects
Our carbon projects are created to avoid, reduce or remove CO2. They align with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and support your organisation on its pathway to Net Zero. Please visit our carbon project page to explore the full range of opportunities available.
Carbon Guide June 2026
Contents
Share this article
Loading…