COP30 Updates and Expectations

Chris Peterson: Hello and welcome to Activating Sustainability, the Anthesis podcast, I’m your host, Chris Peterson. On this ‘Just In’ podcast we’re connecting with Anthesis peers in real time during the first week of COP30 to hear what they’re watching, seeing, and hoping for out of this year’s event. As you’ll hear in the discussions, there are a number of important pieces on finance, circularity, nature, and implementation that are likely to come out of these two weeks in Belém, Brazil.

However, what has struck me most leading up to and through this first week of COP, is the effort to temper expectations and what can be done by COP alone over these two weeks. That is not to say that COP in the process is not important, but rather that it is a necessary but not sufficient tool to drive the changes needed, which we have seen throughout this year is a combination of business, government, non-governmental, inter-governmental organizations, indigenous communities, citizens, scientists, advocates, and more.

The annual COP meeting is a unique opportunity to bring all these groups together and drawing the world’s attention, is a forcing function for decisions and commitments, and has played a key role in shifting the trajectory of global temperatures.

When progress feels challenging and far too slow, COP provides an opportunity to both look ahead to what is absolutely needs to be done, but also to reflect on what has been accomplished. In part, thanks to the COP process businesses, Euro projections of global temperatures have dropped from roughly six degrees Celsius rise in 2009 to around three degrees today.

Neither of those are acceptable, but when the headwinds feel particularly strong, it is worth appreciating the progress that has been made to energize the efforts needed to continue pushing. To share their perspectives on this year’s COP meeting, I’m really pleased to be joined by Debbie Hitchen, Director of Circularity and Value Chain Transformation out of the UK, and Ana Gutierrez Loscos Senior consultant on our ESG and reporting team out of Spain.

Welcome to the podcast. Thanks for joining.

Ana Gutirrez Loscos: Yeah. Thank everyone. Thank you for hosting us.

Chris Peterson: Absolutely. Well, maybe to kick us off, I’m curious what you’re both watching for, and maybe, Debbie, do you want to start us off?

Debbie Hitchen: Yeah. Yeah, that’d be great. Thanks for having me on this podcast, it’s lovely to have the opportunity to speak with you. So, COP is obviously a unique opportunity to gather governments business, civil society, and have a discussion about advancing climate action. And it’s really for me, about turning that focus from an ambition into implementation.

And this year the focus on circular economy makes it a bit more pivotal for those of us who’ve been watching this debate on circularity for the last however many decades. And I think it’s, a great opportunity to focus on the nexus between business circular innovation and the climate action opportunity and how that comes together under the benefit of a sustainability umbrella for the greater good of societies.

So, what I’m excited about from this year is the opportunity to actually mobilize the international community, to accelerate and implement a scalable circularity process that allows us to move whole economies in their real-life scenarios, into something that’s more sustainable and to give us a progress tracking mechanism that will allow us to see year on year, how we’re actually making that link between circular innovation and climate action become more real.

Chris Peterson: Great. And Ana, what are you watching for?

Ana Gutirrez Loscos: Hi, thank you. So I’m, mostly focused on climate finance since, the current commitment by developed countries to mobilize 100 billion hourly for climate action is aspiring in this 2025. At this COP, these negotiations are underway to establish a new collective quantified goal that actually reflects the evolving needs of developing countries and the urgency of climate crisis. So in this matter, the main question that is being asked in the COP is how to ensure sufficient financial flows to develop a nation aiming to both support climate adaptation and to facilitate adjustment energy transition.

Chris Peterson: Great. And what have you each seen so far?

Ana Gutirrez Loscos: So in terms of finance, uh, we have seen three main funds that are being boosted. So one is the Green Climate Fund that was actually created in COP16, and in this COP it has proposed to have an increase in 30% funding by 2030, but this still remains under negotiation. This fund is focused both in mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The second fund is the Adaptation Fund, which was actually created in 2001, but in discovery has proposed to prioritize financing, adaptation projects for specifically developed countries. And last but not least, there’s a proposition of a loss and damage fund, which is, still underway, but is expected to be operational by 2026. These initial contributions have been confirmed by companies or countries such as Germany, Canada, the EU, the United Arab Emirates, and Norway. And this fund will focus on direct support to both vulnerable communities, especially, small island states and indigenous populations.

Chris Peterson: Great. And Debbie, how about on the circularity side?

Debbie Hitchen: Yeah, so yesterday there was a ministerial event about, the Circular Economy Now initiative, which emphasizes the role of cities and local governments and the informal sector in the community participation actually, in achieving the model of transforming waste into a resource and building a more resilient and more just circular future.

There was also, a real focus, well, there is a focus. I should say around the discussions, that we’ve just heard from Ana around the, the role of the finance sector to support transition, and in this case into circular economies globally. And that leans in on the business community and the role of regulation in sort of driving up that, common denominator, I suppose, globally, so that global business are sort of empowered from a compliance perspective but also from a finance perspective to realize the potential of circular economy.

So businesses are increasingly sort of viewing the circular economy efforts, and supply chain resilience and product innovation as a real driver for financial performance rather than just a compliance or reputational issue. And yesterday, the World Business Council for Sustainable Development and the One Planet Network announced at COP30, the launch of their global circularity protocol for businesses. And it’s designed to help identify circularity hotspots and opportunities for businesses to drive innovation and build resilience and future fit value change, which of course is very important to the finance sector and, and to the investment parties.

Why I think this is so interesting is that this sets a, a real credible benchmark for comparable circularity reporting. And it was developed with about 200 experts and other organizations participating to make sure that it’s sort of all encompassing and all relevant. And the protocol aims to empower these companies to cut waste, reduce emissions, and drive accountability to improve their own economic performance.

While at the same time making sure that there is that benefit for the climate action. So, the impact analysis suggests that there’s about 120 billion tons of material savings and about 76 gigatons of CO₂ that can be avoided by 2050 if businesses follow through on this, protocol. And so I, this is being reported or is a, a major milestone for circular economy.

Chris Peterson: Yeah, it’s amazing. It’s interesting putting kind of this conversation in the context that we’ve been hearing throughout the year of this shift from kind of a regulatory driven sustainability agenda to one that’s really anchored in finance and business and resilience, and the opportunities ahead of it and just kind of fascinating to see how that’s showing up here.

Is that something that strikes the two of you as well?

Ana Gutirrez Loscos: Yeah. Actually speaking about the private sector, as Debbie was saying, it has been interesting to see financial institutions like BBA and Santander or other companies like Nestlé, which are actively participating in this COP since they’re presenting their decarbonization strategies, launching climate bonds and supporting energy transition projects in across regions like Spain or Latin America. It’s actually quite interesting to see this private sector and how the public funding is melting into this situation and how to boost these, climate transition and these finance transition to adapting projects or adapting new liabilities that may change, with regards to, to climate adaptation and climate change.

Debbie Hitchen: I think I’d agree with that, but I would also say that there is a need for, sort of shared vision around the regulatory landscape. The discussions so far have underscored that there’s a need for a systemic change, moving beyond sort of individual consumer actions, like just recycling at home, for example, to a model where governments and business drive circular design systems and thinking through a combination of business as usual regulation and incentive.

So I actually think particularly when you look at the diversity of participants in COP, that it’s actually a really important opportunity to find where those two things can work together: the voluntary commitments from the leadership in the business community, underpinned by driving better practices through regulation.

Chris Peterson: Yeah. Fascinating. And it is, it needs to be this kind of all hands on deck kind of pulling within that and that coordination. And maybe that ties into a question I had, which was, feels like COP30, the expectations of COP 30 have been tempered, kind of moderate, really trying to not be overly ambitious, at least in setting expectations around that.

And I’m curious, as you both look at the finance and circularity space, what do you feel is at stake in this COP, if anything?

Debbie Hitchen: Well, I can start with that. I mean, we are 10 years on from the Paris Agreement, and although the world has undeniably changed in that time, I still think that circularity is a massively underutilized lever in the journey to decarbonize countries and societies, business models and the consumption and production patterns, of societies.

So the vast majority of materials entering our economy are still virgin, and the total volumes are actually increasing year on year.

So, according to research, only about. Well, less than 7% of materials, globally are coming from recycled sources. And actually that’s down about 25% on where we were this time, 10 years ago.

So I take the words of the president of COP30, who describes circular economy as one of the instruments that we need to make sure that we use as soon as possible to fight climate change as quickly as we can.

Chris Peterson: All right, Ana?

Ana Gutirrez Loscos: So in terms of finance, despite these promising developments that I was talking about before, significant challenges are still remaining. So there are ongoing disagreements between develop and developing countries over financial responsibilities. There are many nations calling for clear eligibility criteria, simplified access and more effective disbursement mechanisms. And there are also concerns persisting about delays in fund delivery and lack of transparency in some places. So while there’s a strong unified call for balance allocation of climate finance that ensures that resources are fairly distributed across mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage. So this balance is, is essential.

And I think that the COP is paying special attention in not creating new financial institutions, but rather being fair and being transparent with the ones that are already created and trying to deliver these funds across, all the projects and all the nations that really need it.

Chris Peterson: Great. Well, and now I’m going to ask you the really challenging crystal ball question of kind of where do you see things headed now, whether that is over the second week of COP and or coming out of COP, where things will go within each of your areas.

Debbie Hitchen: Well, where do I want see it? Where do I see it going? Those might be two different questions.

Chris Peterson: Let’s start with where do you see it going, and then we’ll dig into where would you ideally love to see it go.

Debbie Hitchen: Well let’s look at that. Yes, So the COP30 hosts, have already prepared a circular economy strategy and action plan. And I take that as a really good sign, you know, they’re sort of setting the, the pathway. And I think that what I would like to see is other countries appointing circular economy ambassadors and integrating circularity into their plans to address emissions reductions and I would really like for the finance, to follow that we know that it follows market, we know that it follows policy. And while investments are predominantly sort of flowing into a linear, traditional model, we know that there’s a need to invest in circular business models and that that shift will require the finance sector to go on a journey, the business sector, to go on a journey. Governments to go on the journey and it will require revisions to existing taxonomies and the creation of a very supportive regulatory environment.

So, am I optimistic that we will get all of that coming out of, this COP? Uh, Is perhaps a, a different question. I think, the time for us to be talking about the benefits of circular economy and the possibilities of circular economy, are past. It’s time for us to move to implementation. And if the one thing we think might be able to sort of make that a reality is that businesses see this as sort of their right to continue to operate and their way to a resilient supply chain, then I would like to hope that COP sort of sets the framework within which that can be realized.

Chris Peterson: Great. And just a quick follow up on that. You had mentioned about the reporting protocol and providing that kind of comparability across it. Do you see that as a kind of critical unlock for some of that investment and perspective?

Debbie Hitchen: Yes, I do think that that’s gonna be really important. I think, as I said earlier, that that World Business Council, for sustainable development, and one planet network protocol is actually a really pivotal point for circular economy as a whole. Because it sets that sort of credible framework for us to be able to do that comparable circularity reporting. And it’s really the sort of first time there’s been that holistic approach for organizations to follow in a framework. So yes, I would like to think that that is going move us, along that journey, as a result of being able to, do that reporting.

Chris Peterson: And Ana, you had listed off a number of funds, which are kind of being reinitiated and supported, et cetera. You know, I’m curious kind of where do those go from here? Because I know in past COPs there’s been commitments, and maybe lack of action, and coming back to Debbie’s earlier point about that shift to implementation. How do you see those kind of coming out of COP 30?

Ana Gutirrez Loscos: I, I’d like to be optimistic, both because they’re both, developing countries that are calling for a substantial increase. So that’s not only, international institutions, but for the countries and they’re calling with proposals rating from $122 to $200 billion per year. So that makes me optimistic in seeing that funding is being asked and is being targeted with the funds that I already mentioned. And we can see, for example, the Green Climate Fund that I mentioned before, there’s been an increase in 30%, by 230. So I’m being optimistic, as I said, in that funds are being targeted projects and nations. And also that this COP is most focused on implementation rather than creating new mechanisms or, new discussions. I’m happy with the discussions, but nobody knows, so I hope that these discussions will reach agreements and that will reach the projects that need to be funded.

Chris Peterson: Great. And I know we’re coming up on time. So one last question, which is, if you had a magic wand and were able to impact one piece of this COP exercise, et cetera, and kind of generate an ideal outcome, what would be the thing you would love to see coming out of this?

Debbie Hitchen: Oh, formatic wand. Well, you know, COP is a global stage, isn’t it? For creating increased visibility and commitment to, in my case, circularity as a tool for achieving climate commitment and I think that’s a great thing. And that increased attention certainly helps to move us, I think from the concept, that this is a sort of niche idea to something that can become a centralized component in the climate action discussions, but the thing that I would like more than just that increased visibility and awareness, I think is, to make progress on a formal circularity policy because that’s been very slow since it was first mentioned, I think in COP28. And I think the significant challenge has been the sort of lack of binding intergovernmental agreement on circularity.

So, I think if I had this magic wand, what I would like, is to remove that challenge coming out of this, set of discussions and to be able to basically move us from something that is primarily a framework based on voluntary pledges to something that’s a much more holistic universal application where circular economy becomes the real economy and we can deliver, success to businesses, to nations, to effectively implement these principles and include them in their national climate plans.

Chris Peterson: Wonderful. And Ana handing the wand over to you.

Ana Gutirrez Loscos: Um, for me, I think it would be able to see the project starting rather than on initial stages, asking for funding and stop bearing with, regulatory burdens or complaints. So, my magic wand would be to stop seeing how this funding is not being released or how, if funds are not being transparent or businesses are not being transparent, but rather being able to see the progress achieved and see kind of more like the second phase of these progress.

Chris Peterson: Great. Well, thank you both so much for the time and joining us today and sharing your perspectives on COP30, really appreciate it.

Ana Gutirrez Loscos: Yeah. Thank you, very much.

Debbie Hitchen: Thank you.

Chris Peterson: And thank you all for listening. We’ll be checking in with colleagues again next week to get their real time insights on COP and then doing a deeper dive once the team has had a minute to reflect both on what happened in Brazil and what it means for climate change going forward. Be sure to watch the anthesisgroup.com website and our socials for all of our updates and insights.

Thanks again, and take care.